April 12, 2006

Contrarian Market Advice

If I've learned anything, it's that I really don't have a clue when it comes to guessing how companies will make announcements that impact stocks I hold. Just a month or so ago, I mentioned that I'd played TiVo (TIVO) for a quick 5 percent bump, and jumped out of the stock around $6.00, expecting it wouldn't continue to appreciate. Yet, seemingly after that not-so-bold move, the stock has continued to grow - through $7.50 yesterday on news of their efforts to defend patents against EchoStar.

Now, this morning, we get the news that the company has extended its agreement with DirectTV for an additional three years, after an August 2005 release saying the opposite - that the two companies had parted ways. This too is good news for TiVo, and again, the company stock has jumped, surpassing $8.00 in early trading. That means that I left a full 33% on the table when I sold around $6.00. I hate that. It's called "sellers' remorse", and though I've always been told to lock in profits if you can and not to complain, I hate knowing I played the hand wrong.

In similar news, I've been a Salesforce.com (CRM) stock holder for some time - it's a great service our company uses, and I think Web hosted applications are the way the market is headed. Yet, yesterday, on what would seem to be good news, they acquired a company that will further their reach into wireless devices. While good, the news hit the stock for about 5%, as the adage on the street is the acquiring company is always punished.

While just two examples, it's certainly frustrating to be on the wrong side of a half-educated guess. It'd be wonderful to have a crystal ball that showed what companies planned next. But I guess that's called insider trading, and I probably should steer clear of that.

Listening to ''Messages'', by Solange (Play Count: 4)

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