Saturday, September 13, 2008

Statistics Are Your Friend, Even When They're Bad

By Robert Seidman of TVbytheNumbers (Twitter / FriendFeed)

It should be no surprise that being part of a site called TVbytheNumbers that I’m obsessed with statistics and this obsession extends to all the web site analytics and statistics that are available to us.

While I hear and read things often about how Feedburner’s stats stink and Google Analytics stats stink and none of them ever sync up well, that really hasn’t been my personal experience. Using either Feedburner or Google Analytics as an intraday tool is certainly problematic, and I have had a day or two here and there where Feedburner did lose data for an hour of five that it never recovered, but mostly both are just slow and do recover. Google Analytics typically tracks visits and visitors correctly intraday within reasonable timeframes, but lags behind in counting total pages for hours. Usually, by 8am Pacific time (but not often before then) all the page views for yesterday show up. And once they do, on a page view basis, Google Analytics, Feedburner and Quantcast all seem like they wind up syncing up within 2%-3%.

Given everything involved, I find the 2% difference very reasonable and it doesn’t bother us any. We wind up triangulating between Feedburner, Google Analytics and Quantcast and it’s less of a hassle than managing our Web logs.

Because of the problem cited above with Google Analytics being slow to capture all the page views, it does make intraday monitoring fairly worthless, aside from tracking visits and visitors. All the other stats – time on page, bounce rate, pages per visit, etc. – are all wrong until all the page views are captured. But there’s little we’re doing that requires great analytics on an intraday basis. There are certainly times when it would come in handy, but even as it is, it works well enough intraday where we can at least figure out if we add something or move something around whether the desired result was achieved.

As a tool used after the fact, I find Google Analytics to be an extremely valuable tool, though I often don’t like what I see!

One thing we’ve thrown in the towel on is that referral traffic is almost always bad, no matter the source. There are some rare exceptions where linking produces good traffic (high time on site, number of pages per visit, etc), but that’s indeed rare. In fact, in almost every instance where a specific post is linked, the traffic is bad, with bounce rates often in excess of 80%. That’s whether Louis is linking to it, whether someone throws a link on Twitter, or even if Matt Drudge links to one of our stories. StumbleUpon and Digg show similar results.

Such traffic is great for jacking up visits and visitors, but bad for bounce rates, pages per visit and time on site. We’ve pretty much thrown our hands up in the air on that score and attributed it to web surfing behavior via links. As an aside, the stable link we have from Drudge to “TV Ratings” produces much better results, but if he links to specific story on our site and gives it any prominence on his site, the traffic has a very high bounce rate.

That seems largely out of our control, however there was still one stat that really bothered me. That was that if someone landed on our site via our home page, the bounce rates were still pretty high, approaching 50%. Better if someone came directly instead of via a referral, but still bothersome either way. Here's the landing page results for our site for August 1-31:



Recently, with that and a couple of other factors in mind – mainly wanting the ability to showcase more content on the home page – we redesigned the site. The bounce rate for traffic landing on our home page was around 47% for August. In the last week, post- redesign, that is now around 25%. The bounce rate for referral traffic to specific posts is still lousy, but again, we don’t feel like we can do much about that. Here are the landing page stats from September 6-12.



All of this has me wishing I’d gotten around to redesigning the site sooner. Who knows how much repeat traffic we may have lost as a result of design? I also feel silly because once upon a time I actually had responsibility for the web design/UI group at Charles Schwab. I recently had lunch with the VP who ran that group in my org and when I told her about the results she shook her head and laughed at me. My mentality had been this: our blog is a blog, pretty much like every other blog and designed pretty much like every other blog so spending a lot of energy on design tweaking didn’t seem like a worthwhile priority.

I definitely should’ve known better. I’m still not very happy about the bounce rates on referral traffic, but am quite happy about the reduction in bounce rates for people landing on our home page and would ascribe that improvement completely to redesigning.

By the way, for anyone interested, we went with the Live Wire theme from Woo Themes that we modified a little. So far I’d consider it the best $70 we ever spent. It’s not a perfect world, so the theme isn’t perfect, but setting the navigation structure (which we’ll certainly still need to tweak) and other modifications didn’t take much time. For $70 and time spent, cutting the bounce rate to our home page just about in half seems like time and money well spent.

Read more by Robert Seidman at TVByTheNumbers.com.

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Tuesday, July 8, 2008

The Importance Of Blog Linking Seems to Be Declining

I am a strong believer in the power of linking between blogs, and I still go out of my way to link, especially to peers, to smaller blogs, and to developers of services I write about. At one time, I thought being linked to by the most prominent bloggers could have a significant impact on my traffic. And for a short time, it did. But now, I've seen traffic from other blogs to be driving an ever-declining percentage of visits to my site, swamped by social media tools, aggregation sites, and of course, Google search.

Yesterday, out of curiosity, I downloaded all my visitor logs going back to January of 2006, when I started regularly posting on the blog. While there's no question traffic overall is significantly higher now than it was one year ago or two years ago, the impact that even the biggest of blogs can deliver is lessened. I believe that this is due to a few things:
  1. People are relying on aggregators to find them new sources of information, including Techmeme, Hacker News, Reddit, Mixx, FriendFeed and others.
  2. People, especially those who read this site, are relying more on RSS readers, and many have subscribed to so many feeds that they are reading through stories in an effort to clear out their unread items, not clicking the embedded links.
  3. People who actually read blogs on the site (outside of RSS) are clicking through to respond to the author with comments, rather than viewing links.
This year, thanks to covering some of the hottest topics in the tech blogosphere, I've been lucky enough to have been linked to from some of the most-prominent blogs in the market, including TechCrunch, ReadWriteWeb, Mashable, Scobleizer, MicroPersuasion, Jeremiah Owyang, Mathew Ingram, The Inquisitr, Profy and others. I've also been actively engaged with those flying lower on the radar, including I'm Not Actually a Geek, SheGeeks, Regular Geek (see a theme?) and others.

But looking at my aggregate statistics from the last six months, not even the "big name" linkers drove a lot of traffic, relative to just about every other source. And in some cases, the top blogs that drove traffic were themselves relative unknowns who I've featured in my monthly obscure blog recommendations, themselves often being the beneficiaries of being on Digg or Techmeme.

Top Blog Referrals in First half of 2008:
  1. I'm Not Actually a Geek: When Your Blog Is LouisGrayCrunched
  2. Scobleizer: Loving my FriendFeed
  3. Regular Geek: Required Reading in Social Media
  4. ValleyWag: Most bloggers don't deserve any ad revenue, the seven-word version
  5. TechCrunch: More Bloggers Raising Money. Here Come The Politics. And Here Comes My Rant.
  6. Micro Persuasion: Become an Expert with the Power of Deliberate Practice
  7. Mathew Ingram: Duncan Riley: Lessons in diplomacy
  8. WebWare: A Proposal for Twitter: Shut It Down
  9. ReadWriteweb: Content Is Becoming a Commodity
  10. Mark Evans: Who's Louis Gray?
Definitely a lot of bigger names here, mixed in with some others. But the most interesting thing is that the highest among these "only" delivered just shy of 500 visitors over the first six months of the year, and the lowest passed less than 100. That doesn't even come close to a single day's worth of Google traffic, or a single day of having a post on Techmeme or Hacker News, let alone Digg.

Instead of blogs driving traffic, we have some more mainstream names, as shown in the below graphic from Google Analytics, highlighting sources for the last 30 days:


In fact, it isn't until the #10 position overall over the last 30 days that you get a total number of visitors that is less than the #1 blog referral over the last 180 days. And in most cases, I've not seen any kind of meaningful traffic from mentions on Mashable or ReadWriteWeb. Back in January, I was a little less than happy that Mashable wasn't giving linkage a lot of prominence, but even now that they are, the impact is extremely small. I got 77 referrals from Mashable on their story around Twitter brand management, and 53 more from a story on my being an early adopter, very insignificant in the large scheme of things.

Now, I'm not saying that this data proves linking is dead. I know links power Google juice, and they enhance Technorati rankings, and if done well, people can find new sources of data, but the ability for even a so-called A-List blogger to deliver a windfall of visits is much less than I had ever expected. It is now more important to be part of the social media sites that drive strong traffic - the Twitters and Techmemes and FriendFeeds and Stumbleupons and Reddits, if traffic is your goal. Those sites, combined with RSS activity in Google Reader and other programs are what will drive traffic. So don't wait around begging for Scoble or Mashable to write you up. It might not have the effect you thought.

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Sunday, January 13, 2008

Is SiteHoppin Like StumbleUpon for Drunks?

How do you take on a company who has first-mover advantage, significant market share, and a positive customer experience? It's hard to do. If you want to beat an entrenched company like this, your service should either cost less (or be free), be easier to use, or have significant differentiation, with features that customers can't live without. Whether on the virtual or real world, taking on the big guys can be tough.

In recent weeks, I've seen the emergence of a service that takes users from site to site, like StumbleUpon does, called SiteHoppin'. SiteHoppin' describes itself as a "social networking/bookmarking wiki site that lets you find, bookmark or share interesting sites by hopping instead of typing."

SiteHoppin' doesn't mention StumbleUpon by name, but it performs essentially the same function as the wildly popular service, owned by eBay. What it lacks in visual design and market penetration, it makes up for in buzzwords and attitude. It not only claims "social networking", "bookmarking" and "wiki" in its title, but call itself Web 2.5. I've never even heard of Web 2.5, even while others are working over a definition of Web 3.0.

Stumblers er... SiteHoppers can rate sites by the number of beers (from one to five) they give a page, similar to StumbleUpon's thumbs up and thumbs down feature.

Where SiteHoppin' does come out ahead of StumbleUpon is the lacking need for a browser toolbar. As StumbleUpon has delivered toolbars for FireFox and Internet Explorer, they haven't yet gotten to us Safari users. SiteHoppin's user interface is so light, they claim to work well on iPhones, the Nokia E90 and other smartphones.

The site is just getting started, having reached 10,000 visitors on Friday, and features a most-popular sites listing, as well as a directory of users. So far, the most popular site is www.doodlage.com, which has 43 "Beers on the Wall" for an "Average Beers Rating" of 4.63. I don't know about you, but maybe there's something safer about browsing sober. We'll see how far SiteHoppin' gets against the StumbleUpon juggernaut.

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Thursday, December 27, 2007

BlogBurst Intertwines New Media With the Old

Recently, I enrolled this blog in BlogBurst, a service which opts in your posts to traditional media, including Reuters, Fox News, and USA Today. It only took a few minutes to configure, and was worth taking a look at. Now, as of this morning, my first post, as far as I know, has been added to the Reuters news services, sitting alongside other wire stories from Reuters journalists.

See: Apple Finally Getting Around to iTunes Movie Rentals

This is both a positive development, and a negative one. It's good to gain the blog additional exposure, and have my content read by a new audience, but it also puts my posts on par with those from professional journalists with real-world fact checkers, editors and sources. Additionally, ads sold alongside the wire story will be gaining Reuters revenue, and not me.

I don't expect significant traffic to be referred my way from this service. It's just another distribution medium, like Digg, TechMeme or StumbleUpon. But this one comes with an old media brand.

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Sunday, December 23, 2007

Sunday Spikes Belie Day of "Rest"


Over the last 30 days, my three most highly-trafficked days on the blog are Sundays. Although typically, one can expect lower numbers of visitors on the weekend, with Saturday trailing Sunday, it's been this traditional "day of rest" that's gained the most activity over the last three weeks.

As you can see in the above graph, it seems my Saturday activity has often led to Sunday traffic, first with commenting on Feedheads' growth to 10,000 users two weeks ago, to the AssetBar preview last week. And for some reason, that story has resurged today, with StumbleUpon visitors once again giving it a whirl.

While I'm still no A-lister or record breaker, I love finding stories in the statistics, and SiteMeter is showing us an interesting one here. How are your Sundays shaping up? Is this an aberration, or a trend?

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Friday, December 7, 2007

FriendFeed Continues Upgrades, Separates Items

Last night, social network and update aggregation service FriendFeed upgraded their servers, taking the popular site down for about an hour and coming back with something unexpected, a small, but much-appreciated, upgrade.

The site, which posts all your updates from a variety of online services in one place, including those from Google Reader, Blogger, StumbleUpon, Digg, Del.icio.us, Netflix and more, used to aggregate your updates in a single block, organized by service.

For example, if I added 3 items to my Google Reader shared link blog, it used to say:

"Louis Gray shared Why I said “mugnormous” the other day, SmugMug Automatically Scales Photos and Video, Supports High Definition Video, and one other item on Google Reader".

Now, instead, it splits these out in a more readable way, such as:
Louis Gray shared three items on Google Reader

Why I said “mugnormous” the other day
8 hours ago

SmugMug Automatically Scales Photos and Video, Supports High Definition Video
9 hours ago

one more >>
In the last month or so, FriendFeed has been spitting out small, but useful updates. The service added a utility whereby I can share items directly to its feed (much like del.icio.us, but without it), the option to make comments to others' posts, and to say whether you "Like" a specific item (much like Digg).

FriendFeed has become a must-visit destination for me multiple times a day, as I can get a very narrow picture into what others I've selected to follow are doing or finding interesting. Some of those I'm following include Bret Taylor, who announced the upgrade, MG Siegler, Mihai Parparita, Dave Winer and Scott Beale.

I strongly request you sign up as well.

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Thursday, October 25, 2007

Friendfeed Follows Friends' Web Activity

I've long been a Google Reader and Google Reader shared items link blog advocate. The service lets me call out to you what I'm reading in the blogosphere, and what I find interesting. But for me, and for many other people using a wide variety of Web 2.0 applications, my link blog only covers one facet of my activity.

Where Google leaves off, Friendfeed steps in, combining my updates from around the Web, not only from Google Reader, but also noting when I update louisgray.com, when I add new items to del.icio.us, when I Digg new stories, find something via StumbleUpon or add photos to Flickr. Others also use it to display their activity on Twitter and Pownce. This creates a feed for not just one facet of my activity, but many.

That answers the "feed" portion of Friend feed. But the "Friend" portion takes the service up a notch. I can subscribe to friends and watch their activity one by one, or go to a combined "Friends Feed" and see all their combined activity. From this page, I can see if MG Siegler Dugg a story, if Fred Wilson added a new post to his blog, or if Jeremy Zawodny added a new bookmark to his del.icio.us items. It's a lot like reading Robert Scoble's shared link blog, but one written by multiple people, and with more sources.

The site is currently in beta, and ramping up, having been started by a few notable ex-Googlers, looking to gain traction as the service goes viral. Their blog shows their new office space, as they're just getting started.

My feed is here. If you need an invitation to the service, just say so in the comments, and I'll send it via e-mail.

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Sunday, October 14, 2007

Getting Hit By StumbleUpon Is Wild

The StumbleUpon phenomenon is often hard to figure out - but when something I've written catches the eye of a group on StumbleUpon, it's always good for a quick rush of visitors who disappear, seemingly as quickly as they had arrived. They aren't the type to leave comments, or even, in most cases, click around and read the rest of the site, but it's good for an hour or so's worth of entertainment - as I try to decipher what it was about that particular item that set them off.



Typically, the story I've written which gets nominated to StumbleUpon isn't even new. For example, today, just after 7:30 (Pacific), I got hit with the latest wave of Stumblers, looking at a series of Alexa charts I posted last Sunday, showing the declining level of influence from traditional media sites in relation to new media.

It's not the first time I'd hit StumbleUpon, having previously reached the site for my comments on Facebook, and one or two others, which I can't recall. But as I've noted before, I shouldn't count on them with any routine. They're one night stands at best.


Speaking of external linkage, Lance Wiggs wrote up a nice piece on why he believes "old media is not doomed" after all. In his mind, it comes down to brands, skills and lawyers.

Also, our good friend and curmudgeon Steven Hodson complains that the latest discussion of Google Reader statistics is just another way for the A-List bloggers to show how much better they are than the rest of us. See his note: I thought they said the A-List wasn’t important; or didn’t exist.

Truth be told, if I had tens of thousands of subscribers, I'd want to count them all the time and show everybody how far ahead I was too... Maybe if I can figure out the magic to getting on StumbleUpon more regularly, I'll get on that list...

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