Is There A Way Back From Free?

Guest Post By Colin Walker (Twitter/FriendFeed)

On Wednesday, Matthew Ingram posted a reaction to Mike Arrington's interview with Twitter founder Evan Williams with regards to the way Twitter is just handing their data to potential competitors for nothing.

It has seemed obvious to me for a while that an ideal aspect of a business plan for a social networking service such as Twitter would be to charge partners for premium access to the API, but once you have started down the free path, is it possible, or wise, to backtrack and start charging?

At the inception of a service, the desire is to gain popularity as quickly as possible - the API allowed Twitter to gain this popularity - the openness fuelled a separate ecosystem and Twitter usage spread far beyond what the service would have been able to generate on its own. At this stage charging for access would have stifled the creativity surrounding Twitter and the vast majority of third party apps would never have existed.

The question becomes: who would want to use the data from the Twitter API so badly that they would be willing to pay for it?

Let's look at the four companies allowed access to the full XMPP data:
(prior to this morning's announcement with GNIP)

• Summize would never have existed in its current format and would be pointless with only limited access to the API
• Twittervision is merely a mashup and the developer would, no doubt, have never gone this route if there was no free access
• FriendFeed itself also has no obvious business plan so where would the incentive be to spend money it doesn't have?

Perhaps the only company with full access that may consider paying would be Zappos but only because it is a "real" (if online) business rather than a social media startup. As Evan alludes to in the interview it is the distinction between commercial and non-commercial use that is the potential driving factor here.

The web can only exist on the handouts from VCs for so long before someone, somewhere starts demanding a return on their investment. Where is this going to come from?

So, is it possible to start charging for access?

The news that Twitter have limited unauthenticated calls to the API as well as authenticated calls could well be the first step on the road to pay-per-play but who should or shouldn't be paying and can Twitter now justify a shut out of this nature against the revenue it could potentially receive?

How many third party tools will wither and die? How many developers will quit before their project ever sees the light of day?

When I wrote about Twitter shutting off the Replies tab in favour of keeping the API open I queried if this was the most sensible route - why restrict your own application to protect those of others? The argument was that Twitter receives ten times more traffic via the API than it does from the web site so, as Duncan Riley commented, why "would you willingly block half your user base?" isn't that what restricting API access is effectively doing?

This information came from an interview with Biz Stone in September last year in which he also explained:

the API becomes not only crucial for us on a creativity level and something that we can offer to the developers so that they can build their own applications and experiences, but it also becomes a way for us to grow and a way for us to potentially - depending on what business model we choose - do well there, business-wise (my emphasis)

The constant denial that Twitter knows where they are heading with their business model seems at odds with the constant messages we get when we read between the lines. Even back in September it was viewed that the API could be a money spinner. The moves to restrict API access, in my opinion, are reinforcing that message even if Twitter themselves argue that they don't know where they're going.

As Bob Dylan said: The times thay are a-changin'.

BallHype Acquired by Future US In Attempt to Join Big Leagues

After 18 months of progressing beyond the rookie stages of product development, Ballhype, the sports story discovery, submission and voting site, announced this morning that they have been acquired by Future US, a San Francisco-based media company. The purchase, for an undisclosed amount, enables the company's properties, including BallHype and a sister site, ShowHype, focused on entertainment news and gossip, to continue, but with a partner to help increase their monetization as traffic and engagement grows.

As an early Ballhype user in the first half of 2007 (See: Hype It Up: Ballhype Is Here to Change the Game), the site quickly became a go-to for me in terms of finding the best sports news from around the blogosphere, without being married to the front page of ESPN. More than just a news discovery site, BallHype also offered community engagement through votes, comments, and contests, for game predictions and tournaments, like March Madness.

By October, the husband and wife team of Jason and Erin Gurney, saw the growth BallHype had delivered, and pointed their knowledge to Hollywood's glitz, with ShowHype (See: ShowHype Connects Hollywood With Silicon Valley Geekery)

When my wife and I met with Jason and Erin during a viewing of the NBA All-Star Game festivities at their home this last year, they told me despite its later start, ShowHype's traffic eventually eclipsed that of BallHype, soon becoming the primary driver of engagement, page views, and advertising. But the pair didn't want to reinvent the wheel again and again, making customized sites for the more mundane topics of technology, politics, or religion, choosing instead to keep focused on those things they themselves liked.

The purchase of BallHype by Future US shouldn't mean any dramatic changes for the pair of sites. They are still going to be running, and finding the best of the Web's news for sports and entertainment.

In an interview with AOL Sports' FanHouse, co-founder Jason Gurney said, "Our traffic had reached the point where it was substantial enough to prove the value of our model--but we weren't monetizing well, and didn't have enough resources to take advantage of some of the opportunities we saw."

The Gurneys built BallHype and ShowHype almost single-handedly, alongside some technical help, and partnership with other smart sports folks, including Tom Ziller of Sactown Royalty, as well as advice from Gabe Rivera of Techmeme. The pair reside in the Bay Area with their two young children, a boy and a girl.

You can learn more about the acquisition on the official BallHype blog or at AOL Sports' Fanhouse.

Why Disqus Is Winning the Web Comment Battles, and What's Next

Tonight, I was lucky enough to have dinner with Daniel Ha, the CEO and co-founder of Disqus. One of the advantages of being in the Silicon Valley is that in many cases, I can actually engage with and meet the people who are moving the industry forward, and while I don't consider myself a big-league hob-nobber, the occasional social visit can be rewarding. I won't jeopardize future meetings by giving away the company store, but I definitely came away from the evening feeling even more committed to Disqus and the company's strategy than I was before.

As you already know, I first added Disqus to my blog with Daniel's help, after finding I was unable to integrate the service into my Blogger template. He went above and beyond the call of duty to get me up and running, doing such an excellent job that the effort was noted by Mashable.

This customers-first attitude shown on the Web was evident off-line as well. Daniel more than once apologized for the brief downtime Disqus suffered last Friday, saying that he had awakened to a swarm of e-mails from frustrated users, not to mention my post, and said that we were right to call them on it, as Disqus comments are now such an integral part of our blogs. He assured me the team knew the issues behind it and was working diligently to make sure another similar outage would never occur. Disqus' popular sidebar widget was to blame, putting a great deal of strain on the service, which has since been lessened.

Also, during the meal, Daniel asked me a question that he says he loves asking users, "How can we make Disqus work even better for you?"

Had I been properly prepared, I could have brought an index card along with responses at the ready. Duncan Riley, for instance, wants trackbacks and FriendFeed integration. I asked for better statistics and analytics, and had questions on how older posts were displayed on my Disqus dashboard. But the truth is that I'm already quite happy with Disqus, and have grown to expect to see it on other blogs, making myself less likely to comment on other sites that don't offer the centralized comments feature.

On a personal note, I was struck by how young Daniel was. At the old age of 31, I'm now reaching the point where just about every Major League Baseball player I like is younger than me. But the CEO of a company I think could have a big impact on the future of the Web being 22, and a UC Davis computer science graduate just this year? That's not fair, and I'm not used to it. Coincidentally, my youngest sister also graduated from Davis on Saturday, sharing Daniel's class year.

Daniel started Disqus in 2007 with friend Jason Yan while in Davis, and this month, doubled the team, adding two new coders, Andrew Badr and Devin Naquin. (See: The New Guy and Hello, world!)

Andrew's already busy letting people know about upcoming features, promising the addition of trackbacks "sometime in the next week.", on the Oracle AppsLab blog. He also answers many people's fears as to the portability of the data, saying, "Better options for import and export are in the works, and will be part of our next major release."

As I wrote at the end of May, Daniel has helped lead Disqus to the forefront of blog comment services in a short time, partly due to his aggressively pursuing relationships with partners. While some companies have targeted Disqus with competitive pot-shots, Daniel said that having others in the field helps to reassure him that it's a good market to pursue. If nobody else was interested in the space, he would undoubtedly be wondering just why.

Disqus is well-known to be funded by Fred Wilson with Union Square Ventures and Paul Graham with Y Combinator, among others, and while some VCs may try to demand immediate revenues or even profits from even the smallest of ventures, Disqus is not yet under such pressure. They've definitely had talks about how to monetize and start bringing in money, but if you thought they were about to start with advertising, you'd be wrong. Disqus will not always be a zero-revenue company, but Daniel says advertising's not in the plans.

For a service that's already got what I believe to the best solution with threaded conversations, a strong GUI and centralized activity, Disqus is continuing to work hard to maintain their lead. Andrew's comments point to near-term release of importing, exporting and trackbacks, and Daniel seems to have an extremely level perspective on what could be a challenging environment for anyone, let alone a 22 year-old entrepreneur. I believe we need a lot more people like Daniel focused on delivering a great customer experience with real benefits, who are less focused on the day to day fights between competitors than they are on getting the service perfected.

TechCrunch's Arrington Launching Recruitment Effort?

This morning, TechCrunch's Michael Arrington, amid news and rumors that some blog networks are raising millions of dollars in funding, said that with more to lose in the blogging business, these funded networks are going to get more aggressive, not just in focusing on content, but also on politics, picking fights when necessary. But most interestingly to me, he stated he would like to be part of a proverbial "Dream Team" of bloggers, who if aligned and focused, could take down more established, traditional, media.

In his widely-referenced piece, Arrington said he has been, of late, trying to promote "young but promising" bloggers, specifically mentioning Silicon Alley Insider, CenterNetworks, Mathew Ingram, and me, by name. He wrote, "these guys rarely agree with me, but when they talk I listen because they've put some thought into what they are saying and how they are saying it."

The combination of these two messages in his story led one colleague to tell me over breakfast this morning, "His article made it sound like he was recruiting you - in public."

A fun idea, to be sure, and far-fetched. But not completely impossible.

Bloggers, even those not raising funds, find friends and create informal networks. SheGeeks Joined Grand Effect today, a small tech blog network, including Sarah Perez of Sarah In Tampa. Closer to home, MG Siegler of ParisLemon, Steven Hodson of WinExtra, Jason Kaneshiro of Webomatica, Fredric Lardinois of The Last Podcast and I often refer to ourselves as "The B-List", jokingly mocking our non-elite status. When not linking to each other or leaving comments on our blogs, we're trading e-mail, or monitoring one another's FriendFeed. There's no money in it, and if we formed a network, we probably couldn't raise enough cash to keep the lights on for a month.

But others who are true A-Listers, if that term carries muster, might be on Arrington's short list for what could be the next media empire. And while he set CNET as the target to take down, I'd say that's aiming too low. If Arrington really is interested in taking resumes from aggressive, well-written bloggers, and is answering his phone to calls from potential applicants, it could be little time until the TechCrunch Dream Team starts blocking shots from the rest of the upstarts like an underpowered Angola 1992 squad.

I just want to know who he has in mind.

Dealing With Offline Companies Can be Such a Pain

Unless you're a brand-new visitor to louisgray.com, you might remember a post from a few weeks ago where I revealed my wife and I are expecting twins, our first children. While that announcement was sure exciting, there are a number of very real offline preparations which are going to take real physical labor and change - not the least of which being getting our home ready for two permanent visitors. But as easy as it is to plan things online, it's those offline who can throw snags into the whole operation.

With my wife having more than a decade's experience in teaching school, and the two of us having accumulated our fair share of material goods, we're going to need a place to put some of our own things and get a room in our condo ready for the kids. So, on Monday night, before my trip to Boston, I reserved a 10' by 15' unit at a local Public Storage, letting us start moving our items. I was able to register online, and gained a confirmation e-mail, saying, "This price and unit will be held for 7 days."

But during my time in Boston, Public Storage called my home phone number, which I had left on the site, on Tuesday and Wednesday to confirm we would be ready to move in by Saturday. By Thursday, the afternoon I came home, a final message was left by a woman who gruffly said as we hadn't returned her call, that we had lost our spot. Held for 7 days indeed. A short 7 days from the night of the 25th to the afternoon of the 28th!

Did I get a single e-mail asking me to confirm I would be ready to move in on Saturday? No. If I had gotten one, I definitely would have responded. And what am I supposed to do now? Sue them for breach of contract? It's not even worth it. So of course, I logged back on today and reserved a new unit at a different Public Storage somewhere else in town for about the same amount, and yes, its automated e-mail has the same "7 days" guarantee.

I recognize that I can't exactly compress my offline materials, attach them to an e-mail and send them to a new location, while that would be nice. But it's gotten to the point I expect customer service to be much better and for true online companies to be much more responsive and interactive than these offline clowns. That they wouldn't even think of sending an e-mail, after the initial confirmation made no sense. Why ask for it then?

FriendFeed Opens Up, Raises $5 Million in Funding

After several months in closed beta, available by invitation only, FriendFeed, a leading social service for aggregating your Web lifestream, opened up its doors to the general public tonight, and announced Series A financing of $5 million, including funds from Benchmark Capital and two of the company's co-founders, Paul Buchheit and Sanjeev Singh.

In the competitive social activities aggregation landscape, FriendFeed has stood out from the competition thanks to its origins, founded by a small group of former Googlers, its clean design, and its rapid adoption of new features, implemented in a way that benefit users.

While FriendFeed has been at times compared with the FaceBook news feed, FriendFeed offers not a dumping ground for application spam, but instead a new way to "discover and discuss information among friends," as FriendFeed co-founder Bret Taylor put it in a press release issued late tonight. In my several months of using FriendFeed, it's become a must-visit site multiple times a day, as the service not only streams my Web activity in one central location, but also that of my online peers, giving us the opportunity to comment and share new ideas and findings.

The site has become such a big part of my Web activity, that just yesterday, I made FriendFeed.com my start page online. Also of interest, long-time FriendFeed holdout Robert Scoble finally jumped in to the service feet-first, following repeated prodding from me.

And the prodding hasn't just been focused at inviting new users. FriendFeed, over the last few months, has been overwhelmingly responsive to feedback, including my 10 suggestions for FriendFeed from last December. In just the last few weeks alone, FriendFeed added a new tabbed interface, opened a new company store for FriendFeed logo items, and added options to add items in a new window. They may seem like small details, but the company is constantly innovating.

With FriendFeed opening up tonight, we can expect the service to grow tremendously, kicking off the next wave of social networking services aimed not at posting busy profiles, but instead, aimed at collaboration, sharing and communication. We're excited to see FriendFeed grow, and look forward to their next stage.

Yahoo! Calls Microsoft Cheap, Will Reject Offer

The Wall Street Journal is reporting today that Yahoo!'s board will rightfully tell Microsoft to go pound sand on their offer, unless the total value of that offer is increased, more than 30 percent ahead of their initial approach, making the value of the deal not $44.6 billion, as originally planned, but now, nearly $60 billion.

As I mentioned last week, Microsoft came after Yahoo! at a time when the company's stock was depressed, and tried to "get the company on the cheap", offering, instead of a massive cash outlay, exchange for fractions of Microsoft shares, which at the time amounted to $31 apiece. But in the ensuing market downturn, the offer became less and less substantial, as Microsoft stock eroded, as repeatedly noted by Henry Blodget of Silicon Alley Insider.

Typical in things of this nature, the conflict isn't over technology leadership or how the products and people would overlap, but instead, simply dollars. As Jason Calacanis tweeted this morning, "(translation: $5 bucks more please!)"

I believe that in the face of innovation by Google, Apple, Facebook and many others, Microsoft and Yahoo! don't represent technology leadership and forward-thinking the way they once did. Regardless of the price, Yahoo! should say no to Redmond, and take a new approach to their business to make themselves relevant once again.

Microsoft and Yahoo! Yesterday's News on Yesterday's Companies

In case you were concerned about me, I didn't miss yesterday's news about the proposed Microsoft takeover of my Sunnyvale neighbor, Yahoo!. I just felt that with everyone on the planet, and some in other planets, for sure, talking about it, I'd not only be lost in the noise, but seen as a me-too blogger, which I'm trying to avoid. But we saw it. And we think it'd be a mess.

(Peek at TechMeme for yesterday's million headlines)

Microsoft's goals with a Yahoo! acquisition are clear - try to become relevant in the Web space, including search and social networking. The company saw Yahoo!'s recent dysfunction and hoped to get the company on the cheap, while taking on Google in a more aggressive way. But this won't help their position against the competition, and may actually make the situation worse.

But, if you're Google, a Microsoft-Yahoo! alliance is just about the best thing that ever happened to you. It would combine two of the most confused and unfocused competitors you have, guarantees months to years of integration issues and slowed product development, concern about layoffs and jockeying for position amid increased political infighting. It wouldn't promise improved innovation and technology that would threaten your leadership, but instead take two companies with varying cultures and ask them to beat you together, where individually, they have failed.

If you're Apple, you see Microsoft aligning with Yahoo!, making Google more likely to align with you, which can only be good. You see the company who designed the Zune hook up with the company whose Yahoo! Music offerings went absolutely nowhere. You hope the company keeps making Mac Office, but you've got two backup plans, with your iWork suite, and Google Office.

While Yahoo! once had the leadership position on the Web, and still leads in a few areas, including population on Yahoo! Mail, and a good portion of the portal space, they've fallen behind everywhere else, the exceptions being their smart acquisitions of Web companies like Flickr, MyBlogLog and Del.icio.us. Microsoft never could get there, and while they still own the world's most popular and most hated browser, in Internet Explorer, they've had very little success anywhere else. Even their massive acquisition of Hotmail has turned out to be an unrespected joke.

A Microsoft and Yahoo! combo would have the world's most popular operating system, and the world's most popular office application suite. You could presumably layer on top of that Yahoo!'s widgets, acquired from Konfabulator. You could then integrate Outlook with Yahoo! Mail, and combine MSN search and portal efforts with those of Yahoo!, but just look at what's happened with all the other search acquisitions on Yahoo!'s side: Alta Vista, Inktomi, and Overture, for starters.... have they made Yahoo! better and more popular than Google? No.

A Microsoft/Yahoo! merger would take two tech titans, remove one, and make the combined offering less successful and less innovative than the combined efforts of the original. It'd give Google a free pass and extend their head start. It'd eliminate thousands of overlapping jobs, and send many smart folks out on the street or off to new start-ups. But if Yahoo! knows what's good for it, it'll reject the underpowered Microsoft offer outright, tell Ballmer to pound sand, and take a renewed effort toward integrating its own services and competing aggressively in the market. I just hope they're smart enough to say "No Deal".

Forget the A-List? Not Quite Yet.

Well known A-list blogger and technology evangelist Guy Kawasaki says the time has come where prominent bloggers with brand names aren't any more likely to determine a product's success or failure. As he says it, referencing a recent article in Fast Company, "Lousy reviews by them cannot tank your product. Great reviews cannot make it successful."

But to summarily dismiss the most well-known bloggers as ineffective means to get word out around a new product or Web service is flawed. In my belief, there is no binary "right or wrong" answer here. You shouldn't make outreach to the A-list bloggers OR hope to reach users who can virally make your product a success. A good campaign should be more broad, and include elements of both reaching out to the most widely read, and to early adopters.

We can see Web services every day try to get launched through TechCrunch, GigaOM and Mashable, in hopes that the massive traffic spike will carry them through their next venture capital round and long-term success. People often refer to the ensuing deluge of visitors as "The TechCrunch Effect", as they once did about the "Slashdot Effect". And while we know that eventually traffic goes back down, being profiled by such well-read sites leads to smaller bloggers following on with their own take, trying out the product and writing reviews. In effect, rather than starting at the bottom to get a few links and working their way up, going after the big dogs means getting coverage both at the top and the bottom.

As I told Emanuel Rosen, author of "Anatomy of Buzz", following my first comments on his book, there are new ways to gain buzz and interest across the Web these days, from limited invites and private betas to working Twitter and the B-List. There's no question that each of these elements can deliver users. But to ignore a significant portion of a potential campaign on its face and declare it one to "Forget" is silly.

Some of us may wish the A-List concept were dead and gone, but it's not yet, and it won't be for some time, and if one name were to go down, there's no doubt another would rise to take its place. In every marketplace there are leaders who wield an inordinate share of power. Simply wishing them away won't make it so.

Resisting Temptation at Fry's and the Apple Store

Yesterday, I pulled off a daring two-fer, as a friend and I went to the Palo Alto Fry's, and later to the Apple Store, and I managed not to buy a thing. Despite being surrounded by flat-screen televisions, DVDs, video games and widgets of every kind to support my iPod and Mac habit, we were thrifty, and didn't get our credit cards out once. Tough job.

But that didn't mean I resisted letting my geek flag fly.

At Fry's, I wore a tie-dyed Apple logoed t-shirt throughout the store. While everyone else was bundled up from the storm-like weather outside, I donned the t-shirt, sensing a marketing/advertising community, helping to push the unwashed, white box PC builders at Fry's to consider a healthier alternative.

When at the Apple Store, we outgeeked the sales reps themselves. As we messed around with a 30-inch Cinema Display, we ended up showing the employee some of our favorite Web tools, from Assetbar to FriendFeed. We showed off high-quality videos playing on our iPod Touch. We even introduced him to products we knew the company sold on the online Apple Store but not in their retail store. After a while, the guy was asking us if we were "visiting from corporate", i.e. from the mother ship in Cupertino.

Interestingly enough, the Apple Store in Palo Alto continues to be a major hub for Silicon Valley digerati. Years after seeing Apple CEO Steve Jobs there, in the store's early days, last night I recognized and talked with Michael Arrington from TechCrunch. He reported he's not going to CES, and said Om Malik is still in the ICU, but has been well-protected by his team, so updates have been slim. Arrington said it was good to meet fellow bloggers, and it's likely not too often he's recognized in the real world.

So, that was fun. Why didn't I buy anything? Because we're still recuperating from the holiday purchases. I didn't tell you we bought a 50-inch Samsung plasma screen from Fry's on Christmas Eve for our living room, and got a guy to take our old, bulky, entertainment center. So that means our overhaul is further along, but not complete. We still need to get both TVs on the wall, and get a smaller half-height entertainment center. Then, maybe... I can start buying again.

10 Predictions for 2008 In the World of Tech

1) Google Will Trump Both TechMeme and FeedHeads

Amid the discussion of Google's sneaking in a social network, little has been said about Google Reader potentially tabulating and reporting the most commonly-shared items and most popular feeds. I believe that in 2008, Google Reader will start reporting the most popular feeds, clicked items and shared items. By the end of 2008, it will become equally important for bloggers, if not more so, to be atop this list, instead of on TechMeme. Google will also integrate this information for both Facebook and iPhone, competing head to head with Mario Romero's excellent Feedheads application.

2) Facebook Will Buy Digg in an All-Stock Transaction

With the company being valued at $15 billion, Facebook can offer around 5 percent of the company to Kevin Rose and team at Digg and net them pre-IPO shares of what's sure to be a white-hot 2009 offering. The all-stock transaction would value Digg above $500 million, the highest possible exit for the company. Public companies, including Microsoft, will counter with $300 million of real money and be rebuffed.

3) eBay Will Sell StumbleUpon to Yahoo! or News Corporation

eBay has done absolutely nothing with StumbleUpon since the service's $75 million acquisition. Unlike PayPal, which was a natural fit, StumbleUpon has no fit within the ecosystem of eBay. A more acquisition-savvy businesses, like Yahoo! or News Corp, will end up with the property by the end of the year. Expect this to accelerate alongside management changes at eBay and continued fallout after the Skype disaster. What it will do is pocket eBay some serious cash. This time, StumbleUpon goes for north of $200M.

4) Twitter Will Add Video, Photography Support

Moving outside of its 140-character niche, Twitter will enable bored microbloggers to show exactly what they are doing with still photos and 15 second video clips. Despite the novelty wearing off, many will continue to do so, gaining us precious photos of the window over their computer desk, overexposed facial closeups and pictures of their breakfast. The service will be integrated with Picasa, Flickr and Photobucket.

5) Apple Boot Camp Will Morph to Be Like Parallels, VMWare Fusion

Some time in 2008, Apple's Boot Camp application will no longer require a restart to run Windows applications. Users will be able to natively run Microsoft Outlook, Project, Access and all other Windows-only applications alongside their Mac OS X applications on any new Mac. While developers may decry the competition to Parallels and VMWare Fusion, Apple will remain quiet, and slowly take over the market.

6) At Least One Major Browser Will Embed Ad-Blocking

By the end of 2008, either Firefox, Safari or Opera will natively ship with the ability to block all ad banners and Google AdSense. Publishers and bloggers will make a lot of noise about it, while secretly avoiding ads themselves. A significant percentage of early adopters will change browsers solely for this feature.

7) Assetbar and FriendFeed Will Gain Early Adopter Audiences

Early adopters always looking for an edge will move away from Bloglines and Google Reader in search for something more cutting-edge. Many will turn to FriendFeed and Assetbar, following the latter's launch, to find a rich feed reader with social networking features. However, neither service will enjoy a significant market share prior to the end of 2008, and neither will be acquired by the end of 2008.

8) Video Blogging Will Remain Unpopular, Unprofitable

Despite advances in video capture and broadband speeds, Web users will not gravitate toward long-form video blogs, choosing instead to stick with text and photography. Only the rare extreme niche businesses will find any success with utilizing video for blogging.

9) iTunes Video Rentals Will Decimate Netflix, Blockbuster, Hurt Box Office

The introduction of video rentals on iTunes will not only force a dramatic subscriber exit for Netflix and reduced rentals at Blockbuster, but will also further slow attendance at movie theaters nationwide, as consumers find the service good enough, and much less inexpensive than a night out.

10) Fast Company Will be a Fast Stay for Robert Scoble

After joining FastCompany in early 2008, Robert Scoble will be at first jubilant, have initial success, and then plateau. While he will remain tremendously popular, there will already be discussions by the end of 2008 as to where he will end up in 2009, giving ValleyWag and Uncov, among others, plenty to gossip about.

Other 2008 predictions:
Jeremy Toeman: Technology Predictions for 2008
Paris Lemon: The Year Ahead 2008: 17 Predictions
The Economist: Technology in 2008
Mahalo: 2008 Technology Predictions
Center Networks: 2008 Predictions from CenterNetworks

TechCrunch Reports AOL Completes Netscape's Demise

It's silly how one can get nostalgic over a software application, but Netscape Navigator, in its original incarnation represented to many, including myself, the first days of massive Web adoption. Netscape was the first huge Internet IPO, and the first real solid challenge to Microsoft's monopoly, after Apple had made its share of missteps. Now, as TechCrunch reports, the browser is officially left to die.

While I had used Mosaic prior to Navigator, I dutifully downloaded all the beta versions of Netscape on my Mac my freshman year of college. My roommates didn't understand why I kept Navigator 0.93, 1.1 and 1.12 on my hard drive. Some part of me wanted them for history, I guess. But as we all know, it was Netscape who became history. Internet Explorer dealt them a body blow, and Microsoft squeezed their life from them. Then AOL's acquisition of Netscape made things unbearable.

The browser stagnated, and Apple had grown closer to Microsoft, as Steve Jobs told an annoyed Macworld crowd that Internet Explorer would be the Mac's default browser. Mac IE 5 was actually pretty good too! Meanwhile, Navigator skipped version 5 altogether, and rolled out a clunker, moving from Netscape 4 to Netscape 6, but it was too late. And by then, we'd all moved on - to IE, to FireFox, and eventually, to Safari. Now, Netscape is but a blip in Silicon Valley history, one that helped kick off the first Web bubble, preparing the way for future tech giants like Yahoo! and Google, and reinvigorating the economy.

A quick search of my Mail archives shows the importance of Netscape.

As I wrote in February of 1996 in a letter home, my freshman year, called "Bad tech day":

"About dinnertime, my computer went totally nuts. To make a long story short, my entire sytem folder was thrown away, including all extensions, preferences, and the like.The final result may still not be final, but there are some key things missing. ALL mail from Eudora which I had saved since October is GONE. All mailboxes. All adresses. All nicknames. All Bookmarks for Netscape, which I was proud of. Gone."

Later, from March of 1996 in another letter home, called "Checks and balances":

"Here's something annoying. I have a Macintosh. Non-Power PC, with a 68030 processor... This means I don't have a Java-supporting Netscape browser, to view live sports scores, and I can't download RealAudio 2.0, which I also need. Ahh. The life of the underprivileged."

Later in March, I sent home a "Top Ten Anagrams for Netscape Communications". I have no idea where I first got it, so apologies to whomever I ripped off:

Top Ten Anagrams for "Netscape Communications"

10.Companies can't consume it
9.I cannot compute sans mice
8.Can't access 'net... I'm on opium
7.Um, options scam can entice
6.Net's uncommon capacities
5.Connect communities, ASAP
4.Mosaic IPO, etc., can stun men
3.Optimum 'net access: An icon
2.Connect it up; amass income

And the number one anagram for "Netscape Communications":
1.Mosaic, minus neat concept

Just think, those e-mails home were from 11 years ago, and we're still talking about Netscape today. While AOL and Microsoft can take away the company and its browser, they can't take away its legacy. Long live Netscape.

Shopping for Your Mac Geek This Holiday Season

Want to really get your favorite Mac geek on the road to happiness this holiday? Aside from dropping two large on a new MacBook Pro, or latching them to a long-term AT&T contract by getting them an iPhone, one of the more unique ways to ensure they'll love you forever is to get them some rare Apple schwag. And a few choice sites have just the thing for their Apple itch - be it Apple t-shirts, Apple watches, Apple caps, posters, stickers, or jackets.

You'd think the best place to get Apple gear would be from Apple themselves, but aside from the retail store at their corporate headquarters in Cupertino, you're basically S.O.L. (That stands for ... uh... Store Offers Little)

Thanks to the scarcity of Apple-branded merchandise, it's unlikely you'll find major bargain basement pricing, but for years, Red Light Runner and The Missing Bite have done good business online selling to Mac afficionados like me. On top of all my Mac hardware, I've probably got 5 shirts, a cap, a pair of fleece jackets (for my wife and me) and several Apple watches. And despite this plethora of riches, I'm always looking for more. In fact, my latest purchases arrived today. (A new Tie Dye Shirt for me, T-shirt for my wife, and... another watch)


Images Courtesy of The Missing Bite
As many in the Mac world know, Steve Jobs famously shot down Apple's licensing program, not just for Mac clones, but for a line of "Think Different" watches, which feature the Apple logo, and run backwards - thinking different indeed. I bought a pair of these watches for $59 or so five years ago, and thanks to scarcity, have seen the offering prices only skyrocket to nearly $200 today. But trust me, I wouldn't sell mine even if you offered me $400 apiece. They're that good and unique. In fact, by this point, when I look at a so-called "normal" clock, I have to mentally reverse the hands to get the time right.

You've got just over two weeks until Christmas. And while I wouldn't mind it if you purchased me an iPod Touch off my Amazon.com wish list, I'm not expecting it. So make some other Apple geek happy and get them to show off their Apple love in style!

Buy Your Favorite Bloggers a Gift this Holiday

In my house, Christmas and Amazon.com are intertwined. Around this time every year, I update my Amazon.com Wish List, let friends and family know, and one by one, watch my requested gifts transition from the "Unpurchased" to "Purchased". But Amazon.com's Wish Lists are often made public, giving you the option to send gifts to friends, family, or people you've never met - including some major names in the blogosphere.

Updated: Dec. 3rd at 7:00 p.m., editing Steven Hodson's list...

While some of their lists are quite out of date, if you're wondering how can you make a leading blogger happy this holiday? Let's take a look...

1. Om Malik (GigaOM)
Amazon Wish List

Om wants both a new digital camera and a camcorder. He's settled on the Sony Cybershot DSCW55 7.2MP Digital Camera with 3x Optical Zoom and Sanyo Xacti VPC-HD2 7.1MP MPEG4 High Definition Camcorder with 10x Optical Zoom. The first retails for $165, and the second, for just under $600.

He also wants some CDs, and has been waiting since 2003 for someone to buy him Jim Rogers' Adventure Capitalist: The Ultimate Road Trip". Those last items are significantly cheaper.

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2. Richard McManus (Read/Write Web)
Amazon Wish List

Though he hails from Wellington, New Zealand, Richard's list is filled with U.S.-created music and books, ranging from Nirvana's With the Lights Out box set to Michael Lewis' Coach: Lessons on the Game of Life, and Mediated: How the Media Shapes Your World and the Way You Live in It .

Most items are in the $10 to $40 range, something you just might be able to afford.

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3. Kevin Rose (Digg and Revision3)
Amazon Wish List

Kevin's pearly whites made the cover of BusinessWeek in 2006 as he gave a goofy smile and thumbs up to the magazine's story on a new "brat pack of Silicon Valley entrepreneurs". Despite this, Amazon.com lets us know he still needs an Oral B 7850DLX Professional Care Power Toothbrush, which retails at just over $100.

While he still may need the toothbrush, some of his older items I doubt are still on his most wanted list, including the 3rd generation 10 gigabyte Apple iPod, and Pirates of the Caribbean - The Curse of the Black Pearl (Two-Disc Collector's Edition)> DVD.

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4. Cory Doctorow (Boing Boing)
Amazon Wish List

Cory is looking for a Walt Disney Treasures DVD on "Tomorrowland: Disney in Space and Beyond" from 1959, as well as a number of books from Jane Jacobs, including Systems of Survival: A Dialogue on the Moral Foundations of Commerce and Politics and Cities and the Wealth of Nations.

Sounds thrilling.

As fun as those may or may not be, they'll do him more good than the pair of Handspring springboard modules he asked for back in 2001 to deliver GPS and remote control capabilities to the line of now-extinct handhelds.

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5. Guy Kawasaki (How to Change the World)
Amazon Wish List

Guy is a simple fellow. He's looking solely to get Total Hockey: The Official Encyclopedia of the National Hockey League. It looks like you can pick up a used copy of the 2003 edition for just under $5. Given how little he opted to spend on making Truemors, maybe this budget is just what he's looking for!

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6. Mark Zuckerberg (Facebook)
Amazon Wish List

Mark can probably buy just about anything he wants now, which explains why his Wish List is empty. However, when he was back in Dobbs Ferry, New York, before heading West to fame and fortune, he did ask for the Unrated version of American Pie, and Cruel Intentions, starring Sarah Michelle Gellar and Ryan Phillipe.

Maybe he'll refill his wish list soon. And maybe not.

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7. Loic Le Meur (Loic Le Meur.com)
Amazon Wish List

Similar to Guy, Loic only has one item in his wish list, a 2004 book titled We've Got Blog: How Weblogs Are Changing Our Culture. It retails for about $15. With his Seesmic application growing like crazy, it looks like he's got this Web app and blog thing nailed, but I'd feel better if somebody bought him the book.

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8. Maryam Scoble (Maryamie)
Amazon Wish List

While Robert Scoble's Amazon.com wish list isn't easy to find, you can still support the family by getting his wife, Maryam, a good book. She's quite the reader, looking for help on Babyproofing Your Marriage and solving problems with the Baby Whisperer.

When not reading, Maryam wouldn't mind a pair of ladies' Italian leather dress gloves (which Robert didn't get her last year, it appears), along with greatest hits albums by Elvis Presley and The Beatles.

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9. Steven Hodson (WinExtra)
Amazon Wish List

Steven, aiming to become the best Windows developer he can be, has asked for programming books on the Windows Presentation Foundation, including Programming WPF and Code + Markup: A Guide to the Microsoft Windows Presentation Foundation.

Unlike his prior list, which was stuck in the 2004 era, he swears this one will be updated more frequently.

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10. Kent Newsome (Newsome.org)
Amazon Wish List

Like Om, Kent is looking to upgrade his photographer cred by adding more hardware. Specifically, he's asking for a Canon EF 100mm f/2.8 Macro USM Lens and the Sony Cybershot DSCV3 7.2MP Digital Camera with 4x Optical Zoom. Of course, they're not for the faint of heart. Buying either will set you back in the neighborhood of $500.

If you have a smaller budget, Kent also has a list of books he'd like, ranging from The Long Tomorrow by Leigh Brackett to False Dawn, by Chelsea Quinn Yarbro. Also, way back in 2004, Kent asked for a number of CDs from Howlin' Wolf that has yet to go fulfilled.

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11. MG Siegler (ParisLemon)
Amazon Wish List

Now here's a good list. MG Siegler wants Al Gore's book, The Assault on Reason, the Unrated version of SuperBad on DVD, and shockingly, an AppleTV.

Unsurprisingly, MG also wouldn't mind if you bought him a new MacBook Pro, worth $2,500, or some games for the Wii, which typically retail around $50.

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12. Jason Kaneshiro (Webomatica)
Amazon Wish List

It's no secret Jason loves his TV and movies. That's why his inclusion of box sets for Star Trek, Superman and Battlestar Galactica make sense.

He's also requesting one of my personal favorites, the DVD, Startup.com. If you're buying one for him, buy one for yourself too.

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Know more? Let us know, and we'll hope to add the Amazon wish lists of more famous bloggerati. It'd be great to show them we care by buying a few stocking stuffers. And if you're on this list, and your Amazon Wish List is in need of an update, let's get it done! The same goes for those of you who I searched for and couldn't find anything for certain. That means you, Steve Rubel, Gabe Rivera, Michael Arrington, Robert Scoble, Dave Winer, Pete Cashmore, Mathew Ingram, Ryan Block, Duncan Riley, Ross Mayfield and Hugh Macleod!

Silicon Valley Media Notables Divide "Hot" from "Not"

This evening, I had the opportunity to attend a fun panel put on by the Public Relations Society of America (PRSA) Silicon Valley at the Computer History Museum in Mountain View, featuring some of the Valley's top reporters, from the Wall Street Journal, BusinessWeek, Forbes, CNBC, Kara Swisher of All Things Digital, and uber-blogger Robert Scoble. The panelists, all "Hot" in their own right, shared with the PR-heavy audience what they thought were the biggest hits of 2007, and what's next in the coming year.

Virtually all panelists said 2007 could be summarized through the success of a few companies: Apple, Google and Facebook, to name a few, the rise of the iPhone, user generated content, social networks, Twitter, and advertising-driven firms. But some said a tide was going to turn with the change in the calendar year, away from consumer-driven technology, and toward enterprise. Also, many expected a combination of bad news to hit the Valley and the economy at large - a market downturn, a recession, and bursting of what could be seen as the advertising bubble, with many companies riding the second wave to Web upstarts to disappear altogether.

Kara Swisher, author of AOL.com (a must read, featured in my bookshelf), was one of the stars of the evening, proving herself intelligent, quick, witty, sarcastic and perfectly willing to mock Second Life, Facebook widgets or the other panelists at any opportunity.

At the other end of the table was Robert Scoble, with Amazon Kindle alongside, playing the part of the only true digerati on the panel. His brazen openness and willingness to engage with his readers through his blog, through Twitter and Facebook, and request to be contacted by cell phone, was in stark contrast to others all too tired of PR pitches - most who said they preferred e-mail. He was one of the few to bring up private startup companies he likes, including Kyte.TV, and vehemently disagreed with CNBC's Jim Goldman on whether Microsoft was seeing a string of success with Vista, Zune and the XBox. And when he stated he read 800 RSS feeds a day, the response was one of shock from his fellow panelists, who jokingly compared him to the notoriously always-on Marissa Mayer of Google.

The far-ranging discussion chided the US government for being too focused on "the friggin' flag", as Swisher mentioned, instead of working to get the country in a leadership position on broadband and wireless, while nations like Vietnam, South Korea and Europe were able to get their act together. She postulated that had the development of the United States' interstate highways been managed in the same way, we'd be on cobblestones.

Other comments were that ad-driven media companies will see a spike in spending to the tune of $100 million around the 2008 presidential election, a one-time jump that will go away, painfully, in 2009, that Yahoo! better get off its kiester and figure out what it's going to do with all its users and products, and that Google just might continue disrupting every new market it enters, including wireless.

While I'd met some of the panelists and others in the room before, it was my first time meeting Scoble personally, but given our online discussions, talking with him had an immediate air of familiarity and friendship, one forged through shared experiences and points of view. (He was no idiot...)I'd be eager to sit in on more discussions like this, and to see if these notables were right with what they expect for 2008.

eTrade's Losses Are Investors' Gain

The last time I mentioned eTrade's issues, I said I had bought in to the stock around $5.50, following a small recovery after bad news swirling around the company had decimated its market value. Not seeing the kind of continued growth I had expected right away, I sold my position a few days later around $5.65. I'd made a few hundred bucks, but nothing to write home about. But now I'm back in, and it's a different story - one that could be much more profitable.

After I sold on November 16th, eTrade stock resumed its collapse, falling below $4 a share - signaling to me the right opportunity to resume my eTrade gamble (Partly due to this article). So on Wednesday morning, I put a sizable chunk back into the stock, now at $3.89 a share. It looks like it may have been the right move, as while rumors of a potential merger with Schwab.com or TD Ameritrade have been swirling, the stock jumped about 25% today, ending at $5.33 a share, giving me a 37% gain in a two day period, and an "on paper" profit of more than $3,500 so far.

Why play eTrade? Because I believe they have the best brand among online brokerages, and that their customer base will be a valuable commodity, even if they are sold or merge with a competitor. It's also likely the eTrade name would be kept, if not too damaged. After all, who wants a new name like TDAmerE*Trade or SchwabTrade.com? An eTrade customer can only benefit from this.

As an investor, I believe my funds are safe, and that the value of the company is higher than it is today. I've made more than my fair share of bad stock trades in the past, whether from premature selling or simply bad buying, but I'll be watching this one close, hoping it turns out well.

(Also see: Silicon Alley Insider: E*Trade On The Blocks? Probably., BusinessWeek: E*Trade: The Merger Buzz Grows, or E-Trade Shares Spike on Takeover Talk)