Think Apple Would Dare To Take On the Movie Theaters?

With the addition of movie rentals on iTunes, Apple has given my wife and me a new entertainment outlet, letting us essentially have video on demand from a wide library, for only 3 or 5 dollars, at any time we wish. Just recently, Apple made more headlines by signing a pact where new DVD releases would simultaneously debut on iTunes. But this still doesn't solve the issue that iTunes doesn't have new releases that are currently playing in the box office, and I think Apple should be strongly considering working with the movie studios to deliver movie rentals of films currently in the theater, at a premium price, if they aren't already.

While new movies and blockbusters hit the theaters each weekend, it's been a long time since we made the effort of going to the theater, paying $11 and up per ticket, stomaching high prices for food and drink, and even then not having first dibs on seating, lacking the ability to pause or rewind the film (like on TiVo or Apple TV), and being forced to sit through an incredible amount of previews and pre-feature ads.

Our living room TV and laptop are the new theater.

But this still means we're missing out on the experience of seeing a new movie in its opening weekend, and being part of the conversation with others who have caught up on the latest Hollywood mega hit. By the time these one-time hits have reached iTunes, and therefore, the Apple TV, months have likely passed by, and often, the interest I once had in seeing the film has passed, leaving me more likely to do something else.

The movie theater industry has already lost me as a customer, for the most part. But they can get some of my revenue back if they strike a deal with Apple, and make new releases available on iTunes the day they debut in the theater.

I propose the following pricing for a 24-hour new movie rental:

• $9.99 for viewing in the first two weeks.
• $7.99 for viewing in weeks three through six.
• $5.99 for viewing in weeks six through twelve.
• Standard iTunes pricing for all weeks afterward.

There's no question that getting this deal completed won't be easy. Theater owners would be rightly concerned as to losing customers and entertainment moguls aren't known for being flexible. Movie studios might even be concerned you'll rent from iTunes, and show a new feature on your huge flat-screen TV to a busload of your friends. And maybe you would. But if we see Apple's work so far, both with music, and later TV shows and now, feature-length films, it only makes sense that this day will soon come. As a consumer, I can't wait, and I hope I don't have to wait too long. My credit card is ready, and until these new releases show up on iTunes, I can find better things to spend my money on.

Previous Discussion:

March 22, 2007:
The Apple TV Debate Is Upside Down
April 11, 2007:
How Apple Could Crush Netflix Now
September 15, 2007:
Adding Movie Rentals to iTunes Would Save the Apple TV
October 29, 2007:
Eight Reasons the Apple TV is Failing, and How It Can be Saved

Broadband Put to Test With 410 MB of Apple Software Updates

It doesn't seem all that long ago when it could take upwards of an hour to download a 4 megabyte update to Netscape Navigator. And in 1996, I once maxed out my best friend's 1 megabyte e-mail cap by sending him an IRC client as an 800k attachment, forcing him to beg and steal space from the UCLA IT administrators, just to get his e-mail functioning again.

Times change. Tonight, having heard Apple released an update to its Java support in Mac OS X 10.5, I opened up my Software Update, and was astounded to see the number of requested system enhancements, and their size. All told, there were 14 different updates available, totaling 410.069 megabytes - an eyebrow-raising amount, considering that in junior high school, I was comfortable tooling with HyperCard on a Macintosh IIsi with a 20 Megabyte hard drive, with an 80 Megabyte LaCie external drive.


Tonight's Available Updates (Click for Full Size)
In a great example of how far we've come in terms of hard disk space and consumer broadband, Apple's casually requested me to download the equivalent of twenty times the capacity of that same Mac IIsi. And I'll do it. As some of the items require restart, I won't hit the button just this second, but I know my MacBook Pro, with 200 Gigabytes of hard disk space, ten thousand times larger than the old Mac IIsi, is capable of handling this workload.

In the era of terabyte hard drives, 160 gigabyte iPods, and downloadable movies, maybe I should stop being impressed, but every once in a while, it's worth looking backwards to see how far we've come. Now if you don't mind, I've got some Mac updates to install.

I've Been Living in the Recent Mac Past

Not too long ago, you might recall I had the unfortunate opportunity to crush my MacBook Pro laptop while at Spring Training in Arizona, effectively just about doubling our trip's costs. In a mere 30 seconds I went from being jubilant as to the A's success on the field to dismayed at seeing my Web and productivity lifeline with cracks and dead spots on its LCD, and its metal all bent out of shape. On Friday, after spending a few days backing up the machine's data (all 140+ GB of it), I turned in the laptop to the Apple Store, in hopes they can save me about $800 to $1,000 by fixing it and avoiding my needing a new MacBook Pro so early in the product's life.

With my MacBook Pro in the shop, I've gone back in time a full Mac generation. I dug around in our closet and found my PowerBook G4. While it looks a lot like the MacBook Pro, it's about half as good. It has 40% the hard disk space (80 GB vs. 200 GB), 50% the RAM (1 GB vs. 2 GB), and the processor's clock speed is only 60% as fast. (1.25 GHz vs. 2 GHz), not to mention it being of the non-Intel PowerPC variety. I even had to delete a full 30+ GB of iTunes music just so I could copy the big drive's data to the small one.

While the good news is that I moved over all my important data, and am fully synched on e-mail and Web bookmarks and the like, going back a full generation has taken away a lot of niceties I'd taken for granted, like VMWare Fusion and running real Outlook (not Webmail), like getting 3 hours of battery life, not 40 minutes, and MagSafe, instead of a 3rd party power adapter I had picked up after getting increasingly annoyed at Apple's offering.

Also, as I had intended to leave my old G4 in hibernation for "a rainy day", like this I guess, I never got the keyboard fully perfect after my beagle had opted to walk on it one fine evening, as a result, some of the letters I use most frequently, like "e", "r" and "y", require pressing multiple times, or with more emphasis, like I really mean it. Of course, hitting the keys harder also means they occasionally come up a few times in a row and need overuse of the delete button. That is getting rrrrrrrreeealll tiresome about now.

I have to admit I'm a bit lucky to have kept this old laptop where I could get it instead of being dead in the water when I took my MacBook Pro and treated it like common kitchen rubbish for the trash compactor. I'm also glad I could be up and running the next day. But with that said, I'm eager to get a call from Apple in the next few days saying my MacBook Pro is as good as new, and I can get back to being current again.

LinkedIn Company Detail Shows Silicon Valley Carousel

How Select Tech Titans Stack Up (Click for larger image)

Last night, LinkedIn rolled out a major upgrade to the professionally-oriented social network and career/recruiting database, adding new company profiles, giving corporations the same kind of dedicated page to their background as their individual employees have had for roughly five years. (Here's mine.) While corporate profiles have been around forever, LinkedIn adds "special sauce" through its large user database, determining where employees come from and leave to, what other companies they are connected to, and who may recently have changed positions or joined the company. Good stuff.

The new company profiles on LinkedIn are a gold mine for reporters who want to get data beyond what the PR guys may want to dish out. (See: LinkedIn Is a Paradise for Smart Reporters)

Want the average age of an employee? A good estimate is on LinkedIn. Want to know if there is a high level of turnover, and people don't stay long? LinkedIn has that too. It also can provide hints as to whether a company is so strong that folks aren't leaving at all, or if they are leaving in exodus. And if you peer closely enough, you can see the Silicon Valley carousel, as employees move from company to company in search for the next big thing.

You can see employees move from PayPal to Google, Yahoo! or LinkedIn. You can see Friendster employees went to Yahoo! and Zazzle, or from Napster to Apple, Yahoo!, Microsoft and Google. And if you think Google is getting all the good employees out there, there's no question they get their share, but so far, it looks like Facebook is getting a lot of new hires, and nobody's leaving - a boomtime for the social networking giant.

Interestingly, due to Apple's tenure, and the company's rising from the ashes with the return of Steve Jobs, you can see employees that once left the company have returned, having never lost the Mac religion. You can also see longer median tenures at the more established companies, like Microsoft and Intel, who also feature an older employee base.

Gender-wise, men dominate LinkedIn data for the tech industry, with between 60% and 70% of all employees at the companies I selected. Could that be the case, or is there an overweighting of men who use LinkedIn, compared to the true employee base? Maybe it's both?

LinkedIn opening up this data will keep company marketeers and PR on the alert to see how their data is being portrayed, just as they should be watching their coverage on Wikipedia, for in this case, it's their employees' collective data that is pushing the details, without a filter, and just maybe, the truth will reveal more than they had ever imagined. I know I'll be spending a lot more time poking around LinkedIn now myself.

Crush Your Mac Laptop for Fun and Profit!

Ever have 30 seconds of your life that you wish you could take back? A mere 30 seconds that can make a great experience instead be recalled with stains of regret? That's the quandary I find myself in, as after wrapping up a quick mini vacation that saw the Oakland A's win all four of the Spring Training games we saw from Thursday through yesterday, I made a stupid mistake that is already costing me sleep and productivity, and will no doubt lead to hitting my pocketbook. For yesterday, I crushed my MacBook Pro, like a moron, and I have pictures to prove it.

Click Any Image for a Larger Version


See how 40% of the LCD is unusable...


The latch was bent outward from being crushed.


The left side bowed from the blow.


An angled shot (without Flash).

So how did I pull that off? After checking out of the hotel yesterday, we piled our bags in the trunk of the rented convertible. Concerned, once at the game, that my laptop bag would be easily spotted in the back seat, I put it in the trunk, temporarily, in an area marked "Not for Luggage". After the game, I forgot this, momentarily, and hit the "top down" button for the convertible, which dutifully whirred to a start and crushed my laptop bag with MacBook Pro inside. I spent hours last night getting it alive (in FireWire mod) and moving data to an old G4 laptop which I'm on now. But given the MacBook Pro's hard drive is 200 GB, and this one is 80 GB, we're not failsafe yet. But we're trying, and it sounds like I have a visit or three to the Apple Store in my future.

My iPod Touch is Rarely Used for Music

Almost three months ago, we welcomed the iPod Touch to our family.

At the time, I was looking forward to taking videos with me on trips, for surfing the Web via WiFi, and for listening to scads of music. After all, Steve Jobs once said the iPhone, and ergo the iPod Touch, had the best iPod experience ever created. But it's been interesting to see that while my first iPod was all about music, the iPod Touch hardly ever gets used for that purpose.

So what am I doing with my iPod Touch? The overwhelming majority of activity is to browse the Web via WiFi, whether just away from the laptop, or at a friend's home with WiFi. Given the iPod synchronizes its bookmarks with my Safari Web browser, and with the addition of widgets for e-Mail, stocks and weather, just about anything I need is a few "touches" away. And the iPod Touch, to be honest, is the best device I can think of for taking the Web into places where a laptop wouldn't make sense. Ever take a PowerBook into the men's room at work? Didn't think so. But an iPod Touch fits right in your pocket...

As expected, I have used the iPod Touch for viewing movies and TV shows, especially on plane flights. Before my flight to Boston last month, and for this shorter trip to Phoenix, I made sure to rent one or two films before taking off. While Apple hasn't gained the fullest of movie libraries for rent yet, I've found a number of titles worth watching, especially when my alternative is craning my neck to see whatever United or US Airways has on tap. (My latest iPod Touch movie? Punch Drunk Love... and you can skip it.)

With Web access and TV or film, the need to play music is fading. While on my laptop, I almost always have iTunes going, but for my iPod Touch, iTunes is almost a forgotten app.

Recent Apple advances have made iTunes music even less important since I first got my iPod Touch. I've added custom icons to my home screen for Facebook, louisgray.com, FriendFeed and Twitter, and each offers me one-click access to where I'm most frequently engaged and communicating. I'd have added buttons for TechMeme and SiteMeter as well, but so far, I've chosen appearance over functionality, as neither site has a good custom icon. (Here's a great "how to" from Webomatica.)

Gaining the new widgets now puts .Mac and GMail in my pocket, with send and receive functionality. It's not quite able to replace the Blackberry yet, but I've grown quite adept at touch typing on it, more so than I had originally expected. Adding movie rentals to iTunes also made going to P2P networks for films much less inviting.

I'm near my laptop at home and work so often it's a rare time that I need to use my iPod Touch for music. I'm glad it's there if I ever need to tap into it, but over time, it's becoming less and less. Now it's a lot less about finding the right playlist, and a lot more about finding the best open wireless hotspot. That's more than I would have expected when Apple first debuted their original iPod years ago.

Yes, Macs Can Crash Too

The first sign I had a problem was when my iTunes started to sound like a broken record. It just played the same note over and over. Then the e-mail I had half-written stopped letting me type into it. I tried to force quit, and nothing happened. The Mac was toast. My cursor had disappeared, and not even the famous three-finger restart would flip it back on. I had to hold down the power key until the MacBook Pro shut down all the way. After bringing it back up, not only was that e-mail gone, but the new blog template I had been working on reverted to the state I had it, around 1:30 this afternoon. I wasn't working on it for the full five hours or anything, but I definitely lost some work.

So... yeah. I'm not feeling too tech friendly right now. More tomorrow.

My TiVo and My Mac, Finally on Speaking Terms

With two Tivos in the house and a pair of Mac laptops being on almost 24 by 7, you'd think we'd be earlier to the game as far as getting the devices to talk to one another was concerned. But, despite my occasional protestations, we've sometimes taken the slow adopter route, and not forced ourselves to be exactly cutting edge. That's why, more than a year after Roxio first announced Toast Titanium 8, with full Tivo2Go support for Mac OS X, I'm only now enjoying the benefits of taking my TiVo'd shows anywhere I like.

I couldn't ask for the process to be much more simple than Roxio has devised. Their Toast Titanium suite comes with multiple applications, focused on CD burning, and a TiVo Transfer application. After entering in my TiVo's DVR ID, and connecting the TiVo to our wireless network with a simple USB adapter, Roxio scanned the TiVo's disk and showed me the TiVo's contents, including show name, description, duration and how much space it would take up on my hard drive to download it.


The TiVo Transfer Interface (Click to Enlarge)

To grab a show, all I have to do is click it, and hit "Start Transfer". I can even choose "Create Auto Transfer" for a specific show, so that every time my Mac is connected to the network, it'll download it directly to my hard drive. Now, if my wife is monopolizing the TV, or if the house needs to be quiet for whatever reason, I can take the show directly to my Mac, plug in my headphones, and watch on my laptop instead, with quality no worse than on my set.


Downloading from TiVo Transfer (Click to Enlarge)

TiVo changed the game on television networks by shifting when we watched shows, or how we consumed advertising. The option to take the shows with me on my laptop changes the location where I watch my entertainment. While the downloaded TiVo content isn't set up to play on my iPod Touch, or at least without file conversions I haven't tried yet, I appreciate having this new, fun, feature. Now, I intend to slink off and catch up on a few Daily Shows with Jon Stewart.

Microsoft and Yahoo! Yesterday's News on Yesterday's Companies

In case you were concerned about me, I didn't miss yesterday's news about the proposed Microsoft takeover of my Sunnyvale neighbor, Yahoo!. I just felt that with everyone on the planet, and some in other planets, for sure, talking about it, I'd not only be lost in the noise, but seen as a me-too blogger, which I'm trying to avoid. But we saw it. And we think it'd be a mess.

(Peek at TechMeme for yesterday's million headlines)

Microsoft's goals with a Yahoo! acquisition are clear - try to become relevant in the Web space, including search and social networking. The company saw Yahoo!'s recent dysfunction and hoped to get the company on the cheap, while taking on Google in a more aggressive way. But this won't help their position against the competition, and may actually make the situation worse.

But, if you're Google, a Microsoft-Yahoo! alliance is just about the best thing that ever happened to you. It would combine two of the most confused and unfocused competitors you have, guarantees months to years of integration issues and slowed product development, concern about layoffs and jockeying for position amid increased political infighting. It wouldn't promise improved innovation and technology that would threaten your leadership, but instead take two companies with varying cultures and ask them to beat you together, where individually, they have failed.

If you're Apple, you see Microsoft aligning with Yahoo!, making Google more likely to align with you, which can only be good. You see the company who designed the Zune hook up with the company whose Yahoo! Music offerings went absolutely nowhere. You hope the company keeps making Mac Office, but you've got two backup plans, with your iWork suite, and Google Office.

While Yahoo! once had the leadership position on the Web, and still leads in a few areas, including population on Yahoo! Mail, and a good portion of the portal space, they've fallen behind everywhere else, the exceptions being their smart acquisitions of Web companies like Flickr, MyBlogLog and Del.icio.us. Microsoft never could get there, and while they still own the world's most popular and most hated browser, in Internet Explorer, they've had very little success anywhere else. Even their massive acquisition of Hotmail has turned out to be an unrespected joke.

A Microsoft and Yahoo! combo would have the world's most popular operating system, and the world's most popular office application suite. You could presumably layer on top of that Yahoo!'s widgets, acquired from Konfabulator. You could then integrate Outlook with Yahoo! Mail, and combine MSN search and portal efforts with those of Yahoo!, but just look at what's happened with all the other search acquisitions on Yahoo!'s side: Alta Vista, Inktomi, and Overture, for starters.... have they made Yahoo! better and more popular than Google? No.

A Microsoft/Yahoo! merger would take two tech titans, remove one, and make the combined offering less successful and less innovative than the combined efforts of the original. It'd give Google a free pass and extend their head start. It'd eliminate thousands of overlapping jobs, and send many smart folks out on the street or off to new start-ups. But if Yahoo! knows what's good for it, it'll reject the underpowered Microsoft offer outright, tell Ballmer to pound sand, and take a renewed effort toward integrating its own services and competing aggressively in the market. I just hope they're smart enough to say "No Deal".

My Apple TV Still Wants Rentals, But Apple is Holding Out

Remember how pleased we were to learn that Apple finally introduced movie rentals via iTunes? I was stoked. In the midst of the writers' strike, the fact we could potentially gain access to new entertainment via the Apple TV and playing on our big screen was a home run. But weeks after the MacWorld Expo hubbub has died down, we're still left waiting, and the situation isn't getting better any time soon. For as the calendar turns from January to February, we got news today that Apple still needs a few more weeks to get it right. (See Also: TUAW)

Rats.

Since the introduction of movie rentals, we've already enjoyed a few films we hadn't seen in the theaters, including "The Hoax" and "A Guy Thing". Both were in the perfect spot for this - not good enough to see for $10, but of high enough quality where I'd feel bad if I snuck off to some Peer to Peer solution and grabbed it, sans paying. As you would expect, the viewing experience from Apple was simple. After the films downloaded, they were in a special section of iTunes for rented movies, and played just like a DVD would on my laptop. When done, I deleted them, and got that 1 GB or so back of free space on my drive, just as I would expect.

But, despite this wonderful innovation, my Apple TV still doesn't have access to it. I've checked the settings, and each time I look, I'm told I'm "Up to Date". What a shame. Hopefully, Apple's newfound transparency in terms of notifying customers there are delays doesn't turn into a repeat pattern as the weeks turn to months and so on...

In the Future, Everything Electronic Must Be Wireless

Last week, Apple made rumormongers a bit excited when word of MacBook Air prematurely leaked. With silence from Apple in advance of MacWorld, excited Mac fans speculated the new laptop would not only get rid of the optical drive (which it did), but also get rid of power cables, as well as adopting WiMax, delivering pervasive high-speed wireless Internet access from any location. (Rumors like this have been out for years...)

While Apple didn't deliver on these dreams, this time, I believe we stand on the cusp - where developers find new ways to eliminate wires - delivering wireless power, wireless Internet and wireless connectivity between devices, bringing us to an unconnected, truly mobile, future. And it can't come too soon.

In our home, we have ubiquitous wireless Internet. Our Airport Extreme provides wireless access to my laptop, my wife's laptop, our Nintendo Wii, and our TiVo HD (with optional wireless network adapter). We play our Nintendo Wii with wireless controllers. And we use remote controls to interact with many of these devices.

But everything else is wired. We need cables to deliver power to each device. We need cables to deliver television content to the TV. We need cables to transmit audio and video from the DVD player to the TV, from the TiVo to the TV. From the Wii to the TV. The tangled wire jungle once seen only in corporate datacenters is now commonplace in living rooms and bedrooms everywhere, as we add more and more digital devices - and this is entirely the wrong direction.

When you see commercials touting high-definition flat-screen televisions, you always see them flush on the wall, without a wire in sight. When Apple advertises their breathtakingly designed computers, they are shown, again, without wires. Wires are ugly. Wires get tangled and are cumbersome. The companies that make these devices know that, but they aren't solving the problem.

Soon, our living room will feature our 50-inch Samsung on the wall. Our bedroom will have a 42-inch plasma TV on the wall. But where do my wires go? What kind of design is achieved when the TVs are adorned with an array of spaghetti-like strands dangling awkwardly toward the power strips and components below? I can't exactly take an axe to the wall between the two rooms and build out an electronics closet.

In my mind, not only do we need wireless Internet, and wireless power, but we also need to enable our digital devices with BlueTooth or 802.11 capable addressing, so the TiVo can talk with the DVD player, the Apple TV, the Nintendo Wii and the TV itself, without dragging cables between each machine. I shouldn't have to battle for open ports and connectors, and untangle a veritable rat's nest of wires just to enjoy the entertainment or information I've brought into my home.

The issues of wireless power and wireless device connectivity are in my mind more important than higher bandwidth speeds, higher disk drive capacities or improved video and audio resolution. I want my data and my connectivity to be pervasive. I want high-speed Web access anywhere, without wires. I want my devices to be wire-free. Now.

See also:
It's Time to Make Power Wireless and Battery-Free
The Power to Set You Free (of Power Cords)

Apple TV Movie Rentals Will Be Great During Writers' Strike

With pretty much all of prime-time TV on hiatus for the foreseeable future, we only have a few options as far as our TV watching goes. We could stop watching (not going to happen), we could lower our standards in regards to which shows we watch, pick up new shows, or start using our TiVo and Apple TV to pick up movies.

Luckily for us, Apple made that decision much more clear today - with the company finally announcing movie rentals on iTunes, months after we recognized the market opportunity for Apple to crush Netflix. Making the announcement even better yet, the update is free, even for us "Version 1.0" Apple TV owners.

Steve Jobs said Apple had failed in bringing Web video to the big screen. As we'd said many times before, he said customers wanted movie rentals. We didn't want to buy our films. We wanted to watch them once, and throw them away. Today's announcement offers exactly that - and we can make our selections via Apple TV, without ever needing to download directly onto our computers.

Now, we've gone from having no good new content on our TV to a seeming infinite, near-instant repository for quality films. While we haven't yet updated our Apple TV to get there, we already recognize the benefits. And while Apple made many other announcements today, covering the iPhone, the iPod and new laptops, it's the addition of movie rentals to iTunes that will have immediate impact on the way we take in media.

In one day, the Apple TV went from the endangered list to the must-watch list. Boom.

The Eight Types of MacWorld Watchers

It's MacWorld Expo time again. Though the Steve Jobs keynote is less than an hour long, we've already seen the debut of wireless network storage via Airport Extreme, the introduction of movie rentals from iTunes, and an SDK for the iPhone. Not bad. But while we're out here, there are hundreds in San Francisco sitting on every word. Here's how you can identify them...

1) The True Believers

These are the best-known people, those who revere all things Apple and Mac, and are ready to buy just about anything Steve Jobs announces, even if it's as lame as iPod Socks.

2) The Mac Rumors Psychos

This group is made of a subterranean group, who always expects announcements so ridiculous that its impossible to satisfy them. As they spin themselves into a froth shortly before any major press event, their wild predictions (a sub-zero gravity desktop, telepathic interfaces, etc.) are so nutty that even Apple's ground-breaking announcements frustrate them. Every keynote is the "worst keynote ever".

3) Ye Olde Macolytes

Believe it or not, this group will tell you they have been using the Mac since the mid-1980s, and they have yet to see a good reason to upgrade to Mac OS X. They like the features of Mac OS 9. They like their Apple LaserWriters. And they love Quark. Yet, for some reason, they go to the show. Go figure.

4) The Corporate Spies

As Steve Jobs speaks, technology leaders from Silicon Valley and beyond are looking to see where the industry is going, and how they can best copy Cupertino. While Microsoft is famous for this, more and more companies are watching Jobs' presentation style, and wishing they could command the same kind of respect and awe.

5) The Windows Bigots

While they'll be watching with the same intensity as The True Believers, this group is a grumpy lot. They know they made the right decision when they went with Redmond, and they know the Mac is just a toy anyway. Besides, whatever Apple comes out with, Microsoft will get close enough to in a few months.

6) The Secret Mac Wannabes

A quieter lot, this is the potential user base for Mac switchers. Watching each new application on the Mac and the iPhone fills them with frustration and jealousy. They look down at their Dell or HP, and start doing the math in their heads as to how quickly they can trade up to a real computer.

7) The Bloggers and Rumormongers

For more than a decade, there has been a cottage industry of Apple rumor sites, guessing Cupertino's every move. Now, with blogs being so simple to start, everybody thinks they have an Apple audience, and there are dozens and dozens of live keynote sites. (The best are still MacRumors and Engadget)

8) The Curious iPod/iPhone Owner

Millions of iPod and iPhone owners have likely never owned Macs. But they love their gadgets. Now addicted to the Apple look and feel, industrial design and simplified software, they want to see if the Mac is a good option for them as well.

They're out there. Maybe you're one of them. And surely, you know some of the people who fit this mold. Just watch TechMeme and TechCrunch and MacRumors and AppleInsider and Engadget and Digg and Gizmodo for the after-effects as each of these groups clash and try to have a civilized discussion. It usually doesn't work.

Measuring One's Technology Addictions

After publicly saying I wasn't all that interested in the MacWorld Expo this year, Jason Kaneshiro of Webomatica stated I just might have to give up my Apple fanboy ID card. I had stated the unforgivable, and had lost the respect of Cupertino - only a few miles away.

To redeem myself, I set out to prove my lapse was momentary indeed. One survey online helped put me back on my feet, as after answering 15 short questions on "How Addicted to Apple Are You", I was told I had achieved an 88% score - not bad. I could likely have scored higher if I had waited in line overnight for the iPhone, but we're not perfect...


Along the same lines, out of curiosity, I took a similar 14-question test on "How Addicted to Blogging Are You". I scored even higher, achieving a 92% mark - an A in my book. I'd only have scored higher if I used Twitter or installed Wordpress. That'd have given me the 100% score.


I was tipped off to the Apple Addiction test by Earl Moore of Meandering Passage, who achieved a 54% mark. I think he undersold himself, and should try the test again..

Resisting Temptation at Fry's and the Apple Store

Yesterday, I pulled off a daring two-fer, as a friend and I went to the Palo Alto Fry's, and later to the Apple Store, and I managed not to buy a thing. Despite being surrounded by flat-screen televisions, DVDs, video games and widgets of every kind to support my iPod and Mac habit, we were thrifty, and didn't get our credit cards out once. Tough job.

But that didn't mean I resisted letting my geek flag fly.

At Fry's, I wore a tie-dyed Apple logoed t-shirt throughout the store. While everyone else was bundled up from the storm-like weather outside, I donned the t-shirt, sensing a marketing/advertising community, helping to push the unwashed, white box PC builders at Fry's to consider a healthier alternative.

When at the Apple Store, we outgeeked the sales reps themselves. As we messed around with a 30-inch Cinema Display, we ended up showing the employee some of our favorite Web tools, from Assetbar to FriendFeed. We showed off high-quality videos playing on our iPod Touch. We even introduced him to products we knew the company sold on the online Apple Store but not in their retail store. After a while, the guy was asking us if we were "visiting from corporate", i.e. from the mother ship in Cupertino.

Interestingly enough, the Apple Store in Palo Alto continues to be a major hub for Silicon Valley digerati. Years after seeing Apple CEO Steve Jobs there, in the store's early days, last night I recognized and talked with Michael Arrington from TechCrunch. He reported he's not going to CES, and said Om Malik is still in the ICU, but has been well-protected by his team, so updates have been slim. Arrington said it was good to meet fellow bloggers, and it's likely not too often he's recognized in the real world.

So, that was fun. Why didn't I buy anything? Because we're still recuperating from the holiday purchases. I didn't tell you we bought a 50-inch Samsung plasma screen from Fry's on Christmas Eve for our living room, and got a guy to take our old, bulky, entertainment center. So that means our overhaul is further along, but not complete. We still need to get both TVs on the wall, and get a smaller half-height entertainment center. Then, maybe... I can start buying again.

I Don't Care About Macworld This Year

It's January, and for most good Mac geeks like me, the initial post-holiday doldrums are immediately followed by anticipation of Apple's annual religious revival and trade show. Rumors typically fly fast and thick about what Steve Jobs will unveil. Live chats on multiple Web sites can slow servers and set traffic records. Spy photos are graded on their level of blurriness and new rumor sites can spring up on the strength of one good ruse.

But this year, I don't care.

You see, the story's changed. Apple used to make game-changing announcements at Macworld. Apple used to shock and surprise everybody at Macworld. And very often, I was left refreshing the Apple store online with credit card in hand.

But this year, I don't think that's going to happen.

You see, the story's changed. Apple is now making major game-changing announcements all year long. And they are no longer the underdog they once were - the little guy I could root for. Now, their market cap is three times that of Dell, and is just above that of Cisco. The big announcements, as far as I know, have already happened.

What could possibly take place to get me giddy? An iPhone update? Don't care. What about the second generation Apple TV? Don't care. The introduction of a new desktop application that runs Exchange? Maybe that would be interesting. An update to iPhoto that makes it go 20% faster. Please...

So... this year, I don't care.

The early comments about a tablet or a sub notebook or iTunes acting as a music label to sell its own songs aren't interesting. I already have a MacBook Pro. I already have an iPod Touch. I already have the first-gen Apple TV. And I already use iTunes for all my music downloads.

If they're finally getting around to movie rentals, then great. But that's in both the "obvious" and "about frickin' time" category. I won't be at Macworld this year, missing it for the 7th straight year, and while we'll be paying attention, we won't be expecting it to alter our life any.

Also See:
Macworld Expo Eve 2006
MacWorld San Francisco 2007 Eve

My Empty Stock Drawer

At the end of the calendar year, we have a little tradition when it comes to the stock market. Sell everything, and go completely into cash as the calendar switches from December 31 and starts again with January 1st. This year was no exception.

The reason behind my annual sell-off isn't the result of some chart-reading that tells me the market usually takes early January off (though sometimes it does). It also isn't because I have an innate need for a challenge, and see the move as starting the new year from scratch. Instead, it's simply that I do my own taxes every year, and don't want the hassle of tracking down individual trades that bridge a calendar year.

By making sure all my stock trades both begin and end in the same year, Intuit's TurboTax service can easily tabulate the gains and losses for each trade, and doesn't force me to dig through my eTrade records to see when a particular stock was purchased. Also, as I often buy and sell a single stock symbol multiple times in a year, I'm not left scratching my head and guessing where I should appropriately report I paid commissions. After all, if I have confusion, it's likely someone in the IRS will have confusion too, and might later ask me to clarify... leading to pain.

Clearing out my stock drawer (so to speak) also helps clarify what went well and what didn't over the year. There's no ambiguity as to whether one trade hasn't panned out yet or not.

So how'd we do?

Index	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Me	+2%	+4%	+8%	+35%
NASDAQ	+<1%	+8%	+4%	-2%

That looks pretty good on its face. We were up more than 50% on the year. But if I dig deeper, it's clear I could have done significantly better if I completely ditched my quick trade strategy and had instead put all my money into Apple and slept on it.

Index	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Me	+2%	+4%	+8%	+35%
AAPL	+8%	+31%	+26%	+29%

Being such an Apple guy, you'd think I'd have done the right thing, the smart thing, and given all I had to Cupertino. But I didn't. And while others have no doubt made out like bandits, I've ended up looking pretty silly, as the Mac and iPod maker more than doubled its market cap on the year.

I think a lot of people are looking pretty silly when it comes to AAPL. Even the most aggressive, pro-Mac guys, like me, couldn't have anticipated the kind of success Steve Jobs and team have delivered. But now, with Macworld approaching, and having cash on hand, maybe, just maybe, I'll do my part, and get back in the game. If I do, I promise I'll let you know.

Also See:

2005 Taxes in the Bag
The Stock Market Is Bleeding Us Dry
I Bet Wrong On AAPL, Again
Apple Stock Pays for AppleTV, New Airport Extreme
Taxes Completed Online, As Always
Top Eight Worst Stock Moves I Ever Made
Two Hours Of Apple Stock Plenty Profitable

The Mac's Role In My Getting Married

Five years ago tonight, as the clock passed midnight from December 31, 2002 to January 1, 2003, I proposed, and my then-girlfriend, now wife, said yes. While that story's unlikely to win any headlines, I have to acknowledge the Mac's role our courtship - a story which just might make you "Think Different".

In the fall of 2002, an acquaintance of mine from church asked if I could help her move from Foster City to Sunnyvale. Being the geek I was, I took out my Handspring Visor, and added an appointment in the calendar for Saturday to move boxes and carry furniture.

While we got along fine, we hadn't yet found a spark. And that could have been the end of it. But it wasn't.

Kristine knew I was a Mac geek, and a few weeks later, she called to see if I would help her go to the Apple Store and pick up a new Mac before the school year started. Of course, I said I would. I had made the trip to the Palo Alto Apple Store a few times before, with other girls, so this wasn't anything big. Or so I thought.

We picked up a new 12-inch iBook, and I did my part to talk the Apple sales rep out of forcing us into AppleCare, saving $299. I promised I would help where needed.

The next week, we set a follow-on "date" where I would set up her Mac, show her the ropes, and make sure she had all the necessary applications to kick the school year off right. As many of her fellow teachers were forced to use Dells, she needed some kind of support, and she had someone.

That date just so happened to also include dinner and a movie. And future dates didn't have much to do with the Mac after a while. Eventually, I was bringing my Mac over to her condo after work, and I was pushing to get an Airport high-speed wireless network. She did, and I was hooked.

Now, five years later, we've been married for four-plus years. She's since replaced her iBook twice. Once, because it was dropped at school, and more recently, because of an upgrade to an Intel-based MacBook. My PowerBook was upgraded once, and this year, I got a MacBook Pro myself. Our home is littered with iPods of various sizes, not to mention an Apple TV.

Clearly, Macs were part of us getting together, and have been part of our life together. While the ingredients to a successful relationship aren't always easy to nail down, there's no question ours could have been much different without Apple. Thank goodness, we don't have to find out what that would have been like.

10 Predictions for 2008 In the World of Tech

1) Google Will Trump Both TechMeme and FeedHeads

Amid the discussion of Google's sneaking in a social network, little has been said about Google Reader potentially tabulating and reporting the most commonly-shared items and most popular feeds. I believe that in 2008, Google Reader will start reporting the most popular feeds, clicked items and shared items. By the end of 2008, it will become equally important for bloggers, if not more so, to be atop this list, instead of on TechMeme. Google will also integrate this information for both Facebook and iPhone, competing head to head with Mario Romero's excellent Feedheads application.

2) Facebook Will Buy Digg in an All-Stock Transaction

With the company being valued at $15 billion, Facebook can offer around 5 percent of the company to Kevin Rose and team at Digg and net them pre-IPO shares of what's sure to be a white-hot 2009 offering. The all-stock transaction would value Digg above $500 million, the highest possible exit for the company. Public companies, including Microsoft, will counter with $300 million of real money and be rebuffed.

3) eBay Will Sell StumbleUpon to Yahoo! or News Corporation

eBay has done absolutely nothing with StumbleUpon since the service's $75 million acquisition. Unlike PayPal, which was a natural fit, StumbleUpon has no fit within the ecosystem of eBay. A more acquisition-savvy businesses, like Yahoo! or News Corp, will end up with the property by the end of the year. Expect this to accelerate alongside management changes at eBay and continued fallout after the Skype disaster. What it will do is pocket eBay some serious cash. This time, StumbleUpon goes for north of $200M.

4) Twitter Will Add Video, Photography Support

Moving outside of its 140-character niche, Twitter will enable bored microbloggers to show exactly what they are doing with still photos and 15 second video clips. Despite the novelty wearing off, many will continue to do so, gaining us precious photos of the window over their computer desk, overexposed facial closeups and pictures of their breakfast. The service will be integrated with Picasa, Flickr and Photobucket.

5) Apple Boot Camp Will Morph to Be Like Parallels, VMWare Fusion

Some time in 2008, Apple's Boot Camp application will no longer require a restart to run Windows applications. Users will be able to natively run Microsoft Outlook, Project, Access and all other Windows-only applications alongside their Mac OS X applications on any new Mac. While developers may decry the competition to Parallels and VMWare Fusion, Apple will remain quiet, and slowly take over the market.

6) At Least One Major Browser Will Embed Ad-Blocking

By the end of 2008, either Firefox, Safari or Opera will natively ship with the ability to block all ad banners and Google AdSense. Publishers and bloggers will make a lot of noise about it, while secretly avoiding ads themselves. A significant percentage of early adopters will change browsers solely for this feature.

7) Assetbar and FriendFeed Will Gain Early Adopter Audiences

Early adopters always looking for an edge will move away from Bloglines and Google Reader in search for something more cutting-edge. Many will turn to FriendFeed and Assetbar, following the latter's launch, to find a rich feed reader with social networking features. However, neither service will enjoy a significant market share prior to the end of 2008, and neither will be acquired by the end of 2008.

8) Video Blogging Will Remain Unpopular, Unprofitable

Despite advances in video capture and broadband speeds, Web users will not gravitate toward long-form video blogs, choosing instead to stick with text and photography. Only the rare extreme niche businesses will find any success with utilizing video for blogging.

9) iTunes Video Rentals Will Decimate Netflix, Blockbuster, Hurt Box Office

The introduction of video rentals on iTunes will not only force a dramatic subscriber exit for Netflix and reduced rentals at Blockbuster, but will also further slow attendance at movie theaters nationwide, as consumers find the service good enough, and much less inexpensive than a night out.

10) Fast Company Will be a Fast Stay for Robert Scoble

After joining FastCompany in early 2008, Robert Scoble will be at first jubilant, have initial success, and then plateau. While he will remain tremendously popular, there will already be discussions by the end of 2008 as to where he will end up in 2009, giving ValleyWag and Uncov, among others, plenty to gossip about.

Other 2008 predictions:
Jeremy Toeman: Technology Predictions for 2008
Paris Lemon: The Year Ahead 2008: 17 Predictions
The Economist: Technology in 2008
Mahalo: 2008 Technology Predictions
Center Networks: 2008 Predictions from CenterNetworks

TechCrunch Reports AOL Completes Netscape's Demise

It's silly how one can get nostalgic over a software application, but Netscape Navigator, in its original incarnation represented to many, including myself, the first days of massive Web adoption. Netscape was the first huge Internet IPO, and the first real solid challenge to Microsoft's monopoly, after Apple had made its share of missteps. Now, as TechCrunch reports, the browser is officially left to die.

While I had used Mosaic prior to Navigator, I dutifully downloaded all the beta versions of Netscape on my Mac my freshman year of college. My roommates didn't understand why I kept Navigator 0.93, 1.1 and 1.12 on my hard drive. Some part of me wanted them for history, I guess. But as we all know, it was Netscape who became history. Internet Explorer dealt them a body blow, and Microsoft squeezed their life from them. Then AOL's acquisition of Netscape made things unbearable.

The browser stagnated, and Apple had grown closer to Microsoft, as Steve Jobs told an annoyed Macworld crowd that Internet Explorer would be the Mac's default browser. Mac IE 5 was actually pretty good too! Meanwhile, Navigator skipped version 5 altogether, and rolled out a clunker, moving from Netscape 4 to Netscape 6, but it was too late. And by then, we'd all moved on - to IE, to FireFox, and eventually, to Safari. Now, Netscape is but a blip in Silicon Valley history, one that helped kick off the first Web bubble, preparing the way for future tech giants like Yahoo! and Google, and reinvigorating the economy.

A quick search of my Mail archives shows the importance of Netscape.

As I wrote in February of 1996 in a letter home, my freshman year, called "Bad tech day":

"About dinnertime, my computer went totally nuts. To make a long story short, my entire sytem folder was thrown away, including all extensions, preferences, and the like.The final result may still not be final, but there are some key things missing. ALL mail from Eudora which I had saved since October is GONE. All mailboxes. All adresses. All nicknames. All Bookmarks for Netscape, which I was proud of. Gone."

Later, from March of 1996 in another letter home, called "Checks and balances":

"Here's something annoying. I have a Macintosh. Non-Power PC, with a 68030 processor... This means I don't have a Java-supporting Netscape browser, to view live sports scores, and I can't download RealAudio 2.0, which I also need. Ahh. The life of the underprivileged."

Later in March, I sent home a "Top Ten Anagrams for Netscape Communications". I have no idea where I first got it, so apologies to whomever I ripped off:

Top Ten Anagrams for "Netscape Communications"

10.Companies can't consume it
9.I cannot compute sans mice
8.Can't access 'net... I'm on opium
7.Um, options scam can entice
6.Net's uncommon capacities
5.Connect communities, ASAP
4.Mosaic IPO, etc., can stun men
3.Optimum 'net access: An icon
2.Connect it up; amass income

And the number one anagram for "Netscape Communications":
1.Mosaic, minus neat concept

Just think, those e-mails home were from 11 years ago, and we're still talking about Netscape today. While AOL and Microsoft can take away the company and its browser, they can't take away its legacy. Long live Netscape.

Apple Finally Getting Around to iTunes Movie Rentals

I'm hoping it's not in the "too little, too late" category for Apple TV, but it looks like Apple is finally making headway in negotiations with the major movie studios to offer customers the ability to rent films through iTunes, in addition to purchasing them outright. According to the Financial Times, Apple will likely announce a deal with 20th Century Fox at Macworld San Francisco next month kicking off a deal that would not only bring movie rentals to iTunes, but also DVDs rippable to iPods.

I've long said the Apple TV is on fumes without a rental option, and that if Apple could successfully roll out a movie rental service through iTunes, it could spell the death knell for services we enjoy today, from Netflix to Amazon Unbox and even Blockbuster.

While 20th Century Fox is said to be furthest along, the article also mentions Cupertino is working on also getting Sony Pictures Entertainment, P